經驗學習、替代性學習對再併購機率的影響：以臺灣上市櫃製造業為例

The Impacts of Experiential and Vicarious Learning on the Hazard Rates of Sequential M&As: An Empirical Study on Taiwanese Listed Manufacturing Industries

組織學習理論主張組織經驗將影響其未來的決策。然而，僅透過自身經驗的學習，易讓組織受限於策略框架，出現僵固性且喪失彈性。相對的，模仿產業其他企業的經驗，管理人可透過觀察其他公司的行為而瞭解什麼類型的策略才能帶給公司最佳利益。因而當決策及其成果存在較高的不確定時，企業傾向向同業學習。易言之，透過模仿同業的併購決策可取得併購相關知識，使同業的併購活動成為企業替代性學習的來源。此外，過去成功或失敗的績效成果，對組織亦有不同的回饋，進而影響後續決策。基於此，近期研究已開始鑽研不同的經驗特性的學習效果，而本研究將循此一研究方向，期探討不同的經驗型態對後續併購決策的影響。本研究將焦點置於經驗學習、替代性學習對後續併購機率的關係。實證時，採Cox 等比例危險模型建立不同學習模式對後續併購發生率的影響，研究結果發現過去企業自身併購的成功經驗、同業從事併購的比例與後續併購發生率呈倒U型曲線關係；此外，過去併購績效對企業後續併購的機率呈負向影響。

Organizational learning theory asserts that organizational experiences will affect future decision-making. However, learning from own experience, firms tend to be constrained by strategic schemas, show rigidity of existing routines, and lose strategic flexibility. Comparatively, imitating other firms, managers can gather information by observing the behaviors of other firms. That can help them to understand what is in the best interest of their firms. Therefore, facing with uncertain strategic choices and outcomes, managers will imitate their peer organizations. In other words, a firm can gain relevant knowledge from other organizations by imitating their M&A decisions, which can be used as the sources of vicarious learning. In addition, performance outcomes such as success and failure provide different feedbacks that will affect sequential decision-making. Recently, researchers have begun to examine the learning impacts of various experiential features. Hence, this study will follow this stream and aim to explore the impacts of differential experiences on the sequential M&A decisions. This study attempts to provide more insights into the impact of experiential and vicarious learning on the likelihood of sequential M&A activities. The Cox proportional hazard model is adopted to test the impacts of different modes of learning on hazard rates of sequential M&A decision. The results show that both firm’s past success M&A experience and the frequency of M&A activities in a firm’s industry will have an inversed U-shaped relationship with the hazard rate of sequential M&As. In addition, it is found that there is a negative relationship between a firm’s previous M&A performances and the hazard rates of sequential M&As.