臺灣高等教育之失業率與景氣循環關聯性分析與建議

An Econometric Analysis and Recommendations for Cross Higher Education Unemployment and the Business Cycle in Taiwan

本文以台灣高等教育畢業生之失業率為研究變數，運用X-11季節分析與HP（Hodrick-Prescott）濾波法，去除高等教育程度之失業率之長期趨勢，估算出循環周期，並依據估算結果與台灣景氣循環進行分析比較，發現(1)經季節分析每年7至8月為失業高峰；(2)以HP濾波分析，在1980年、1990年與2002年出現三次失業率高峰，並且2009年6月失業率又出現達到高峰的現象；(3)比較台灣景氣與失業率兩者之循環，顯示造成失業率上升，景氣並非為其主因。自1990年開始，在無論景氣復甦或衰退，高等教育程度之失業率長期趨勢皆維持逐年上升，大學畢業生無法配合市場需求，已成為克服失業率最大的問題。再經由德菲爾法對相關專家進行深度問卷調查達成一致性共識，認為高等教育應將就業能力訓練，加入於通識課程之中，而且政府教育單位必需因應人力市場的需要，適時調整人力培育方向，為有效降大學畢業生失業率之方法。

This research develops a set of X-11 seasonal analysis and Hodrick-Prescott filters to analyze the rate of unemployment of the highly educated. It has been found: (1) Seasonal characteristics of the unemployment rate of the highly educated were at a significantly high seasonal effect in July and August. (2) The peaks of the unemployment rate cycle were shown to be in 1980, 1990 and 2002 by Hodrick-Prescott filters analysis; also the unemployment rate peaked in June 2009. (3) The unemployment rate has kept rising since 1990. The researchers compared the unemployment rate of the highly educated with Taiwan real business cycles, which is inversely related to real business cycles. This information indicates that the inability of these university graduates to adapt to or fulfill job market demands is rapidly becoming the biggest obstacle to overcoming unemployment. Next, the Delphi Method was utilized to modify the initial relevant dimensions and indicators, and to identify the fitness of suggest for reduce the higher educated unemployment rate. The best way is to incorporate employability skills into training in general education, also the policy of administration should be adjusted in the direction of higher education response to job market demands.