選舉競爭、政治賦權與原住民投票參與：2008與2012立委選舉的總體資料分析

Election Closeness, Political Empowerment, and Aboriginal Voting Participation: An Aggregate-Level Analysis of the 2008 and 2012 Legislator Elections

少數族群的選舉參與對於代議民主政體的正當性有重要的影響，特別是可以透過選舉參與來「迫使」政黨與候選人對少數族群予以政策回應，繼而能使少數族群對該政體產生歸屬與信任感。有鑑於少數族群選舉參與的重要性，亦為增進學界對於少數族群選舉參與的認識，本文乃以2008 與2012 兩屆立委選舉的投票資料，輔以相對應年度的原住民人口統計，做為研究資料來源；並從選舉競爭與賦權理論的觀點切入，建構原住民投票參與的核心模型，來探究影響台灣原住民投票參與的因素為何？研究結果顯示，投票習慣和選舉競爭均對原住民投票參與有顯著影響，但政治賦權的影響則呈現山地與平地原住民不一致的情形。平地原住民則因為族群同質性高，現任與挑戰者又都屬阿美族人，致使政治賦權對投票參與的影響不顯著。然而政治賦權對山地原住民投票參與的影響，則受到政黨選舉動員與總統立委合併選舉的雙重影響，因而出現不同年度有不同影響的現象。To what extent do ethnic minorities participate in the electoral process? The question is crucial to the legitimacy of representative democracies. At a very basic level, increases in the electoral participation of ethnic minorities may reflect increasing responsiveness to these potential voters among political parties and candidates, which may therefore make minority citizens feel a sense of trust and belonging and a willingness to engage in the regime. As a result, in order to increase our understanding about the electoral participation of ethnic minorities, this study analyzes the aggregate-level data of indigenous legislator elections (2008 and 2012) to discuss the major factors influencing aboriginal voting participation from the perspectives of the “election closeness theory” and “empowerment theory”. The research findings are that the previous turnout and election closeness have significant influences on aboriginal voting participation. However, the influences of population homogeneity and political empowerment on the voting participation of mountain- and plainindigenous peoples are inconsistent. Because almost all plain-indigenous candidates are Amis, the influence of population homogeneity on the voting participation of plain-indigenous people becomes statistically insignificant. On the other hand, in the case of mountain-indigenous people, without similar interference, population homogeneity plays a significant role in voting participation. Furthermore, political empowerment only had a significant influence on voting participation in 2012 but not in 2008, which was caused by the interactions of “concurrent elections” and “party electoral mobilization”.