政治關係如何影響公司價值？

How Do Political Connections Affect Firm Value?

政治關係是否帶給公司價值？若是，則政治關係如何影響公司價值？我們以2008年臺灣總統選舉為研究事件，藉由分析選舉前後公司橫斷面異常報酬率，以及三種不同類型投資人的股票交易情形來探討這個議題，並且同時檢驗選舉事件對與勝選政黨或敗選政黨有關係公司之價值影響為何。首先，我們發現與敗選政黨有關係的公司股價存在負的異常報酬，而與勝選政黨有關係的公司而則無，此結果支持我們的勝選假說。其次，敗選政黨的失利對報酬所產生的負面影響，高過於勝選政黨所帶來的正面影響，支持政黨輪替假說。最後，熟知政治關係價值的內部人，其交易行為與政治關係影響公司價值的方向一致，此結果支持政治交易假說。本文研究結果顯示政治關係對公司價值的確有所影響，而對政治關係較為熟稔的投資人較容易知悉這樣的關係對公司所帶來的價值，這些發現有助於瞭解政治關係影響公司價值的過程。This study investigates whether and how political connections bring value to firms. One way to examine this issue is to check the responses of abnormal stock returns and investor trading for politically connected firms before and after the event of presidential election. We further examine the impacts of this event on the value of firms connected to the winning and losing parties. Data on stock price and shareholdings around the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election are used in this paper. First, we find that the firms connected to the losing party exhibit negative stock returns, whereas the firms connected to the winning party do not. This supports our winning party hypothesis. Moreover, the defeat of the ruling party has a greater negative impact on stock returns than the victory of the opposition party, lending credence to our party turnover hypothesis. Finally, sophisticated investors who understand the value of political connections are more likely to exhibit trading direction consistent with the value change, supporting our political trading hypothesis. Clearly, political connections bring value to firms, and the evidence helps us understand how political connections affect firm value.