影響國內景氣復甦速度原因之探討

Exploring the Factors Associated with the Speed of Taiwan’s Economic Recovery

本文主要就過去歷次景氣循環過程與收縮原因進行探討，並進一步觀察國內復甦速度與擴張期持續期間是否產生變化，藉由分析臺灣景氣循環歷程，期能對未來提升國內因應景氣變化能力提供若干建議。研究主要發現，國內景氣復甦速度與全球經濟回升力道有關，造成過去臺灣景氣收縮的因素中，全球經濟事件的衝擊是主要因素，其中以第4次及第12次循環收縮幅度最大，但隨後於第5次及第13次的擴張期，景氣呈現快速的V型復甦。相對而言，第9次及第14次循環擴張力道則較為平緩。

This paper discusses the reasons for the economic recession, the speed of recovery, and the duration of the expansion in Taiwan’s past business cycles. Analyzing the business cyclical process should help to offer some recommendations to improve the economic resilience to response shocks. The main finding of this study is that the speed of domestic economic recovery is relevant to the strength of global recovery. External shocks were the main contributors to Taiwan’s past recession, of which the 4th and 12th business cycles showed the sharpest contraction. Afterwards, the 5th and 13th cycles exhibited a rapid V-shaped recovery. By contrast, the 9th and 14th cycles represented slow and flat expansion.