美國量化寬鬆貨幣政策之分析

A Study on the Quantitative Easing (QE) Monetary Policy in the US

美國聯準會鑑於經濟復甦力道疲弱，失業率與就業統計數據均不盡理想，2012年9月13日宣布：將維持超低利率直到2015年中，並將以無限期、無限量、無沖銷的形式推出第三輪量化寬鬆政策，每月收購400億美元的AgencyMBS至勞動市場改善為止。與前兩輪量化寬鬆相較，儘管每月平均收購規模較低，但總釋出金額在長期累積之下將難以估計，此種無金額上限與期限範圍的做法被稱為「QE無限」。通膨溫和升高有助於刺激民間消費與投資，貨幣貶值有助於出口貿易，惟此舉亦會使民眾產生通膨預期，廠商生產成本上升，不利於經濟成長與就業。當前美國銀行存款超額準備屢創歷史新高，一旦實體經濟獲得改善，貨幣流通速度恢復正常水準，過量貨幣供給之可能影響不容小覷。

In view of the weak recovery of the domestic economy and the disappointing unemployment rate and employment statistics, the US Federal Reserve announced on September 13, 2012 that it would maintain the ultra-low level of interest rates until at least mid-2015, and would launch the open-ended, unlimited, no-write-off Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3) policy, purchasing US$40 billion of mortgage debt (MBS) a month until the labor market improves. Although the scale of monthly purchases is quite small compared to the previous two rounds of QE, it is hard to estimate the long-term accumulation of money released under all three rounds of QE. This mode of QE without limit of time or amount has been labeled as “QE Infinity.” While a moderate rise in inflation is conducive to private consumption and investment, and currency devaluation is helpful to exports, this approach will also give rise to inflationary expectations and raise production costs, which will be detrimental to economic growth and employment. At present, excess reserves in US banks are continuously breaking historic highs. The possible effects of the excess money supply once the real economy improves, and the circulation of money returns to a normal level, can hardly be overstated.