我國發生「停滯性物價膨脹」可能性之探討

A Study on the Possibility of Stagflation in Taiwan

當前國際經濟面臨成長停滯及物價上漲的威脅，主因：2008年美國金融海嘯衝擊，經濟元氣未復下，2009年底歐債危機序幕又啟，各國經濟受累下滑；原油及糧食，皆處於高價位波動；2012年9月，歐、美、日央行接連執行量化寬鬆貨幣政策，釋出大量流動性，使得亞洲新興經濟體面臨物價膨脹及資產泡沫化的雙重壓力。臺灣是小型開放經濟體，2012年的各項經濟指標顯現疲態，經濟成長率9度下調，全年消費者物價上漲率面臨2%目標的保衛戰。前述國際陰霾罩頂，不僅提高國內經濟發展的不確定性，也擴大輸入性物價上漲的壓力，增加經濟成長停滯、物價膨脹同時出現之風險。為探討國內發生「停滯性物價膨脹」之可能性，本文透過「文獻整理」及「1970年代案例分析」，尋求關鍵影響因素；再從「國際經濟」、「國內經濟」與「政府對策」等3個面向梳理及剖析。最後，提出個人的見解。

At present, the international economy is facing the threat of stagnant growth and rising prices. The main causes of this situation are the economic impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the eruption of the European debt crisis in 2009, the high level of international oil and food prices, and the large release of liquidity from quantitative easing policies carried out by central banks in Europe, the US and Japan in September 2012, causing Asian emerging economies to face the double pressure of price inflation and asset bubbles. Taiwan is a small and open economy. In 2012, its economic indicators all pointed to a weak state, with the GDP growth rate declining nine times in succession, and the yearly consumer price inflation rate challenging the 2% target. The dark clouds overhanging the international economy not only have heightened the uncertainties of domestic economic development, but also have expanded the pressure of imported inflation, increasing the risk of stagnant growth and price inflation appearing simultaneously. To examine the possibility of stagflation occurring in Taiwan, this study first seeks to identify the key influencing factors through perusal of the literature and analysis of the occurrence of stagflation in the 1970s. The study then collates and assesses the current situation from the three facets of the international economy, the domestic economy, and government policy, and concludes with insights drawn therefrom.