國內油電價格調漲對物價影響之模擬評估

A Simulation Evaluation of the Effect of Domestic Oil and Electricity Price Hikes on Consumer Prices

考量油電價格調漲對我國整體經濟及物價有一定程度之影響，本研究首先檢視油電價格調整機制，然後利用產業關聯分析法，模擬評估在油電雙漲的情況下，2012年CPI將上漲0.761個百分點，預期2012年國內物價將有上漲壓力，而主要受影響的產業為運輸倉儲、化工原料、加工食品、電子零配件等。油電價格調整模式的採行，攸關社會觀感，對大眾具宣示效果，宜審慎考量。為因應油電價格調漲對物價之衝擊，除應督促中油、台電提升生產效率、降低營運成本，並適度反映在油電價費率上之外，應配套提供對弱勢族群、低耗能企業與中小企業之照顧。

Since raising oil and electricity prices has some degree of effect on Taiwan's overall economy and consumer prices, our study first examines the oil and electricity price adjustment mechanism, then uses industrial linkage analysis for simulation evaluation of the effects of the oil and electricity price hikes instituted in 2012. It is projected that the rises will exert inflationary pressure on domestic consumer prices in 2012, adding 0.761 of a percentage point to the consumer price index (CPI) during the year. The main industries affected are transportation and warehousing, chemical raw materials, processed foods and electronic parts. The oil and electricity price adjustment model adopted by the government will affect society’s perception and have an announcement effect on the public, so it should be considered carefully. To respond to the impact of oil and electricity price hikes on consumer prices, besides directing and pressing CPC Corporation and Taiwan Power Corporation to enhance productivity and reduce operating costs, and appropriately reflecting this in oil and electricity tariffs, the government should also take ancillary measures to look after disadvantaged members of society, low energy-consuming enterprises, and small and medium enterprises (SMEs).