臺灣景氣同時指標之檢討與修正

Review and Revision of Taiwan’s Coincident Index

近年來在全球化趨勢下，國際經濟快速變遷，為期景氣指標能真實反映經濟變化，有必要定期對景氣指標進行檢討。本文主要針對現行臺灣景氣同時指標進行探討，研究首先對現行同時指標之構成項目進行檢視，其次廣泛測試117條經濟數列，進行季節調整、去除長期趨勢、平滑化與標準化處理，再利用Moore及Shiskin（1967）發展出的評分系統綜合評判，篩選出合適之構成項目，最後合成新同時指標，並與目前指標進行比較。實證結果顯示：目前同時指標構成項目之「批發、零售及餐飲業營業額指數」因略具領先性，建議改以名目之「批發、零售及餐飲業營業額」替代。而非農業部門就業人數落後性質雖益趨明顯，惟考量此數列具明顯經濟重要性，尚難以其他勞動市場指標替代，因此建議暫予保留，日後仍應適時加以檢視。最後，將工業生產指數、電力（企業）總用電量、製造業銷售量指數、批發、零售及餐飲業營業額、非農業就業人數、實質海關出口值及實質機械及電機設備進口值等7項構成項目合成後，新同時指標之同時性質略優於現行指標，確有助於對當前國內景氣脈動之研判與掌握。

Globalization has brought rapid changes to the international economy in recent years, necessitating periodic review of business cycle indicators to ensure that they accurately reflect economic conditions. In this review of Taiwan’s current composite coincident index, we first re-evaluate the seven components of the index, and then conduct extensive testing of the 117 economic series. The testing methods include seasonal adjustment, de-trending, smoothing and normalization. Then, the scoring system developed by Moore and Shiskin (1967) is employed to comprehensively evaluate these 117 series and select the most suitable components. Finally, a new coincident index is composed and compared with the current index. The main results of the study are as follows: (1) It is suggested that “the sales index of wholesale, retail, and food services” in the current index be replaced by “the sales of wholesale, retail, and food services,” due to the better leading characteristic of the latter. (2) Considering the economic importance of “nonagricultural employment”, and the difficulty of replacing it with another employment market indicator, it is suggested to keep it in the index in spite of its increasingly apparent lagging characteristic, but to review it again at an appropriate time in the future. (3) Finally, the new index composed from the industrial production index, electric power consumption, the index of producer’s shipment for manufacturing, the sales of wholesale, retail and food services, nonagricultural employment, real customs-cleared exports, and real machinery and electrical equipment imports, shows a slight improvement of coincident characteristic over the current index, and is of definite assistance to judging and understanding the current pulse of the domestic economy.