台灣第12次景氣循環谷底之認定

Dating the Turning Points in Taiwan's 12th Business Cycle

2008年下半年起，全球經濟情勢明顯惡化，導致成長動能急速下滑、貿易快速萎縮，台灣出口動能因而全面受創；民間消費更因民眾對經濟情勢的悲觀氛圍加深、失業率快速升高、薪資所得下降等因素，受到相當衝擊；民間投資也因產業獲利劇減、復甦前景不明，呈現衰退。根據主計處統計，2008年第3季經濟成長率轉呈負成長，2009年第1季衰退至-8.56%，至2009年第4季方脫離長達連續5季之負成長。行政院經建會已經認定第12次景氣循環高峰位於2008年3月。本研究採取二階段HP濾波程序之綜合指數法、擴散指數法、馬可夫轉換模型等量化工具，同時輔以景氣循環之3P分析，並參酌當時國內外經濟情勢，與景氣指標及對策信號表現。結果顯示，台灣第12次景氣循環谷底位於2009年2月；第12次景氣循環自2005年2月展開為期37個月擴張期，於2008年3月抵達高峰，在經歷11個月收縮期後，於2009年2月觸底。

From the second half of 2008, the state of the global economy deteriorated conspicuously, causing a rapid deceleration of growth momentum and sharp shrinkage of trade, and affecting Taiwan’s export performance across the board. Private consumption in Taiwan was also substantially impacted by deepening pessimism about the economy, escalating unemployment, and falling incomes, while private investment declined due to sharply contracting business profits and uncertainty about recovery prospects. According to DGBAS statistics, economic growth turned negative in the third quarter of 2008, fell to minus 8.56% in the first quarter of 2009, and remained negative for five successive quarters until the last quarter of 2009. The CEPD has identified that the peak of Taiwan’s 12th business cycle occurred in March 2008. This study employs a double HP filter based composite index, diffusion index, and Markov switching model as dating tools, in conjunction with 3P analysis of the business cycle, consideration of current internal and external economic conditions, and examination of business cycle indicators and signals. The results show that the trough of the 12th business cycle occurred in February 2009, with the cycle following a 37-month period of expansion from February 2005 to its peak in March 2008 before dropping to its trough 11 months later.