金融風暴對主要國家財政影響及政策意涵對我國的啟示

Lessons from the Impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis on the Fiscal Policy of Major Countries, and Policy Implications for Taiwan

2008年金融風暴不僅重挫各國金融業，實體經濟亦遭受波及，為穩定金融並提振景氣，美國、英國、日本及韓國等均提出金額龐大的穩定金融及振興經濟支出。此舉雖有助於金融穩定，並促進經濟穩定成長，但也造成政府赤字大幅擴增，並推升政府負債，加上未來人口老化產生的財政負擔，如不採行健全財政措施，財政危機恐將繼金融風暴後產生，是以，健全財政已成為金融風暴後的重要經濟課題。我國雖非金融重災區，惟經濟繼2001年後再次負成長，稅收大幅滑落，支出大幅成長，財政赤字增加，負債迅速攀升，加上人口老化迅速，除規劃實施中長程財政健全方案外，宜參考主要國家健全財政措施，進行更全面健全財政規劃，包括年金制度的改革、審慎評估實施長期照護保險財源之可行性，並配合經濟發展進行租稅改革、產業調整等，以積極健全我國財政。

The 2008 global financial crisis not only affected the financial industries of countries worldwide, but also hit their real economies. The United States, United Kingdom, Japan and Korea responded with massive financial stabilization and economic stimulus spending measures. Though these measures helped stabilize financial systems and regenerate steady economic growth, they created a huge increase in fiscal deficits and raised public debt, exacerbating the fiscal burden stemming from future population aging. If governments do not adopt sound fiscal governance measures, it may be feared that fiscal crisis will follow in the wake of the financial crisis. Hence, sound fiscal governance has emerged as a major economic issue in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Although Taiwan’s financial sector was not affected too badly by the crisis, its economy shrank for the first time since 2001, tax revenues fell sharply, the fiscal deficit expanded, and government debt rose sharply. Moreover, this deterioration in public finances will be further exacerbated by rapid population aging. Under such circumstance, besides planning and carrying out mid-term and long-term plans for improving fiscal governance, Taiwan’s government should also draw reference from fiscal improvement measures taken in major countries, to help it map out plans more thoroughly and soundly. The ambit of planning should cover pension system reform and prudent assessment of the feasibility of funding for the implementation of long-term care insurance, as well as tax reform and adjustment of industry to match economic development needs, so as to actively improve the state of Taiwan’s public finances.