國內投資動能不足問題簡析——兼論服務業投資偏低之現象

A Study on the Problem of Flagging Domestic Investment and the Prevailing Weakness of Service Sector Investment

2001年以來，國內投資成長明顯趨緩，2008、2009年受全球金融海嘯衝擊，更呈兩位數負成長。事實上，近幾年來我國超額儲蓄累增，顯示閒置資金充沛，卻未能有效運用增進國內投資，值得檢討。為綜觀國內投資動能不足、乃至長期的結構性問題，本文由主體別、行業別、資本財型態別等層面，解析國內投資成長減緩來源；至近期國內投資的變動，則佐以其他部會統計、政策闡述、其他主要國家數據等分析；同時檢討投資結構的變化，尤其是1988年以後我國邁入服務業主導的經濟體，但服務業投資成長動能偏低之現象。最後，根據前述分析結論，歸納政策意涵。

Domestic investment growth has slowed conspicuously since 2001. The slowdown was greatly exacerbated under the impact of the recent global financial tsunami, dipping into a double-digit contraction in 2008 and 2009. In fact, Taiwan’s excess savings have continued to increase in the past few years, demonstrating the amplitude of idle capital. Hence, there is need to examine why this store of idle money has not been utilized effectively to increase domestic investment. To broadly understand the causes of flagging domestic investment and the long-term structural problems affecting it, this study uses DGBAS statistics to analyze the provenance of the slowdown according to type of owner, kind of activity, and type of capital goods. The next main part of the study examines data from other government departments, policy explanation, and statistics from other major countries, to cast light on recent changes in domestic investment. The last main part of the study investigates changes in the investment structure, particularly as concerns the prevailing weakness of investment growth in the service sector after Taiwan’s development into a service-led economy since 1988. The paper concludes with summation of policy implications based on the findings of the foregoing analysis.