新編台灣景氣同時指標之研究

A Study on Taiwan’s Coincident Indicators

本研究針對同時指標進行新編指標之研究，主要係因台灣景氣指標自1987年指標修正後，編製方法及構成項目已沿用20年，隨著其間經濟結構改變，服務業比重日益上升，實有必要重新檢討修訂。首先為改善原來編製方法的不理想之處，本研究改採OECD在國際間廣為推廣，且已為許多國家採用的OECD景氣指標編製方法，其次重新篩選經濟指標做為新構成項目，並試圖納入服務業及消費、投資相關重要指標，以期符合當前經濟結構，並可反映不同性質之景氣循環。最後決定的新同時指標包含7個構成項目，經濟重要性及循環對應性均較過去指標為佳，綜合指數同時性亦有所提升，確有助於台灣景氣脈動之研判與掌握。

Coincident indicators vary directly and simultaneously with the economic trend, thereby providing information about the current state of the economy and helping economists and investors to determine which phase of the business cycle the economy is currently experiencing. For coincident indicators to adequately reflect the economic situation, it is important to re-evaluate the indicators and make adjustments from time to time in line with the changing structure of the economy. With this in mind, this paper re-examines Taiwan’s composite coincident index that was constructed in 1987. It then employs the OECD cyclical analysis and composite indicators system to test 543 candidate series, identify those with the best performance, and compile a new coincident composite index. The components are selected to cover most activities of the economy. The final set of components includes industrial production, electric power consumption, real manufacturing sales, sales of wholesale, retail, and food services, nonagricultural employment, real customs-cleared exports, and real machinery and electrical equipment imports. The results show that the new coincident composite index performs better in simultaneity and gives better indication of the current economic situation.