我國對外直接投資與國內民間投資關係之研析

A Study on the Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Fixed Capital Formation in Taiwan and its Implications

投資可分為國內投資與對外投資。近年來，國內固定資本形成成長率有趨緩現象，投資的變動不僅影響當年度的經濟表現，長期亦會影響整體經濟成長，已引起各界廣泛的關注及討論。因近來對外投資隨企業向外發展呈現快速增加，其與國內固定投資的關係值得深入研究，以作為政府的政策參考。本文旨在分析我國對外直接投資與國內固定資本形成之關係，首先由統計資料分析兩者間的趨勢變動情形，並參考近期各主要國家的實證文獻，以對兩者之關係有初步的瞭解，進而利用1981年至2005年資料，迴歸實證分析檢視兩者之間的關係，進而提出政策建議。

Investment not only affects current-year economic performance but also has an impact on long-term economic growth. Therefore, the recent decline in fixed capital formation growth in Taiwan has drawn wide attention and extensive discussion. Since this has been accompanied by a sharp rise in Taiwan’s outward foreign direct investment (FDI), it is worthwhile to study the relationship between the two, for the reference of government policy-makers. To study the relationship between outward FDI and domestic fixed capital formation, this paper first analyses statistical trends of the two and reviews empirical research of major countries to obtain a general picture of the relationship. It then evaluates the impact of outward FDI on domestic capital formation, using OLS techniques and annual data, including industry-level data, for the period 1981-2005. These results provide the basis for policy recommendations made in the paper’s conclusion.