三大主要貨幣有效匯率指數編製方法試析

EER Compilation for the Three Major Currencies

「有效匯率指數」匯集一國面對國際眾多的雙邊匯率資訊，經判別貿易競爭的重要性而給予權數，並歸納為方便比較的系列指數，主要目的在衡量一國的總合匯率變動狀況。有效匯率指數對各國從事總體經濟分析與觀測貿易競爭力，都甚具參考價值。本研究參考美國聯邦準備理事會、歐洲中央銀行、日本銀行及國際貨幣基金的編製方法，探討國際編製趨勢及啟示。結果發現：為增進其價值功能，宜針對需求，強化指標的深廣度。除採取多種觀察面向，編製多項指標，並納入第三市場加權外，宜進一步編製次級指數、強化多元資訊之解讀，並且暢通政策的資訊管道。

Effective exchange rate (EER) indexes, which are composite indexes of many bilateral exchange rates, provide valuable information for economic decision making. This study examines the various approaches to the compilation of EER indexes, and considers the advantages of inhouse compilation of such an index. The study finds that the compilation of different EER indexes based on different baskets of currencies and different types of price deflators may provide varying and not necessarily consistent results, but that nevertheless provide significant insights and warnings to policy makers. The study also finds that, with the rising importance of globalization, the incorporation of socalled thirdmarket effects provides fuller data on market competition to facilitate policy selection. Moreover, inhouse compilation of EER indexes can be tailored to specific needs, and can offer more penetrative analysis of relevant fluctuations as a prop to decision making.