景氣對策信號構成項目與檢查值修正分析

A Study on Taiwan's Business Monitoring Indicators and Check Points

為使景氣對策信號更能確實反映經濟情況，本文針對2000年至2004年間國內經濟情勢的變化，檢討既有景氣對策信號構成項目及檢查值。並利用交叉相關分析（cross correlation）、Granger 因果關係檢定、遞延迴歸分析（recursive regression）等方法選擇構成項目。再以bootstrap統計方法重新評估個別構成項目及新指標的檢查值。主要發現為商業營業額變動率可做為取代票據交換及跨行通匯變動率的新指標。至於燈號檢查值（check point）方面，建議宜參酌學者專家對未來五年經濟情勢可能變化做調整。

It is widely acknowledged that the Taiwan economy has been undergoing a structural change since the late 1980s. As business monitoring indicators are supposed to represent economic performance, it is important whether they are able to reflect such transitions of the economy. Given this concern, this paper first reviews past signals presented by individual monitoring indicators and their check points (the signaling system) from January 2000 to September 2004. The author then tries to find candidate variables for inclusion in the group, using cross correlation analysis, the Granger causality test, and recursive regression analysis. This is followed by application of the bootstrap method to evaluate the performance of current check points and establish check points for the candidate variables. The results show that the indicator for Commercial Sales performs better than that for Bank Clearings and Remittances, suggesting a replacement of the latter with the former as a monitoring indicator. The paper also suggests a revision of check points based on changes that scholars and experts forecast as likely to occur in the next five years.