近十年來台海兩岸對東協貿易之比較研究

Comparative Analysis of Taiwan and Mainland China’s Trade with ASEAN Countries in 1992-2001

本研究根據OECD公布的國際貿易標準分類統計（SITC），運用總體分析與結構分析，探討1992-2001年間台海兩岸對東協貿易情勢的變化。特色之一在於整理大量細部資料，有益了解現象及決策參考；特色之二在於提供廣大的視野，從兩岸與東協的貿易切入分析，並從兩岸對全球的貿易進行觀察與比較。主要發現如下：亞洲金融風暴以來東協各國匯率劇貶且GDP重挫、SITC7產業內貿易盛行及台商投資貿易回流，對近十年兩岸與東協的貿易深具影響。

This report analyses Taiwan and mainland China’s respective trade with ASEAN countries in 1992-2001. Within this period, changes among the relevant economies, such as the broadening and increasing internationalization of ASEAN, the promotion of Taiwan’s South-bound Policy, and the launching of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CETRA), have generated notable changes in the trade pattern among the three economies. According to this research, three factors have had an especially large impact on the change in Taiwan and mainland China’s trade with ASEAN countries during this period: (1) the large devaluation of ASEAN currencies after the Asian financial crisis; (2) the sharp contraction of the GDP of ASEAN countries after the Asian financial crisis; and (3) the boom of the intra-industry trade of the SITC7 in this period. Moreover, even though both Taiwan and mainland China’s respective trade balances with ASEAN countries turned from surplus to deficit in this period, both economies’ overall foreign trade surpluses continued to increase.