我國第十次景氣循環高峰谷底之初步認定

Determining the Reference Dates for the 10th Business Cycle in Taiwan

本文對第十次景氣循環高峰谷底作一初步認定之研究，主要以經建會 成長循環綜合指數法之方式進行，輔以OECD、NBER 以及我國同時指標 等其他方式協助，同時本文嘗試利用擴散指數分析協助判斷。經過初步認定，我國第十次景氣循環之高峰可能落在89 年6 月，谷底可能落在90 年9 月。

The purpose of this article is to determine the reference dates for the tenth business cycle by applying the reference cycle method and the diffusion index method. The reference cycle methods used include those adopted by the CEPD, the OECD and the NBER, respectively. The author also examines the diffusion index of cyclical indicator components. The peak and the trough of the tenth business cycle are found to occur in June 2000 and September 2001, respectively.