消防搶救對建築物火災財損預測與解釋模式之建構－－以臺南市為例

A Forecast and Explanatory Model of Fire Prevention Interventions on Property Losses in Building Fires-A Case Study of Tainan City

火災危險的安全防護目的除了能確保人民生命安全外，也要能保護其財產。本研究之主要目的在透過建築物火災案例，建構出火災財物損失的危險度預測解釋模式，並研擬相關防災對策，以減少火災時所導致的財物損失。本研究將透過相關文獻及有關單位之建物火災案例資料，藉由日本、美國及台灣之研究及國內火災相關法規規定，歸納出建物火災重要因素。利用複迴歸分析之統計方法，蒐集有關建築物特性、消防搶救因素以及人員特性等相關變項資料，建置火災危險度預測模式，並於模式中分析變數對建築物火災財物損失的影響關係。藉由SPSS 統計軟體之應用，進行迴歸分析，最後找出影響火災財物損失之危險因素為消防車出動之車輛數、建築物所面臨之道路寬度以及消防隊到達火場後開始進行搶救至火勢撲滅之搶救時間。

Fire prevention not only ensures people’s life safety but also protects their property. The main purpose of this research is to propose a forecast model about hazards of fire on property loss. The results of the study will provide a suitable strategy for coping with building fire. This study attempts to examine important factors in fire prevention through previous literature, feasible research and related data. By means of the research across Japan, the US, Taiwan and domestic relevant rules, major factors of the building fires are summarized. Investigations including building characteristics, fire prevention interventions and personal characteristics are included. A multiple regression model is used to construct a forecast model about fire hazards and to examine the effects of aforementioned factors. SPSS will be used to analysis the data. The number of fire fighting trucks, width of the road and the time of rescuing are found as significant variables in explaining fire hazards.