科學傳播中「確定」與「不確定」的敘事：以莫拉克風災之系列報導為例

The Narratives of Certainty and Uncertainty in Science Communication: Morakot Typhoon Report Series as an Example

颱風與氣象的變化幾乎是臺灣每年都需要面對的氣候問題，但是不論從科學方法或風險社會的特性來看，氣候科學均具有某些避免不了的「不確定性」。但是氣候事件的科學報導所擔負的，卻又需要給予社會或民眾某種「確定性」的指引，那麼在這種「確定」與「不確定」之間，臺灣的媒體如何拿捏其中的分際？氣象事件之科學新聞報導所依循的敘事模式又是什麼？這些問題反應出媒體對於科學不確定性的觀點，也牽動民眾對於科技風險的認知。本文以莫拉克颱風系列報導為例，選取臺灣主要平面媒體的相關新聞，透過文本分析的方法，解析這期間的不同階段中，科學新聞報導的各種敘事模式及相關問題，並進一步提出科學傳播研究及實務工作上的建議。

Typhoons are the most frequent types of natural disaster in Taiwan. But nowadays, atmospheric science still cannot accurately predict upcoming typhoons or their potential dangers to society. It is hard to exclude uncertain factors because of the limitations of science methodology or the features of risk society. However, weather forecasts still must attempt to provide plausible information to our society and do it with a certain level of certainty. This is a paradox. How do the media in Taiwan scrutinize and balance the tensions between certainty and uncertainty? What narrative types must be used within science news while reporting weather events? The answers to these questions will reflect the media’s perspectives toward the scientific uncertainty. The outcome must also relate people with how to understand our present technological risk. This study utilizes the Morakot typhoon report series as the example to analyze narrative types and explained related questions in science news reports. We have collected science news reports from the main newspapers in Taiwan and have adopted the text analysis method to discover their true meaning. Based on the results, further suggestions for science communication researches and practices will also be discussed.