魁北克的下一步－－從2012年大選結果觀察其未來獨立公投的因素

The Determining Factors of Third Quebec Referendum after 2012 General Election

2012 年 9 月魁北克舉行大選，支持主權獨立的魁人黨擊敗執政將 近十年的自由黨，贏得選舉。選前魁人黨領袖 Pauline Marois 即聲明 當選之後將推動第三次獨立公投，本文即在此一脈絡下析論將來舉行 公民投票所會遭遇到的問題與影響獨立公投的因素。文中指出當前魁 北克的內部政治合作、族群和經濟因素，外加上魁北克與聯邦之間的 關係，使得魁北克走向獨立的道路十分艱鉅。魁人黨政府除了需要面 對複雜的局勢，最重要的在於建立新世紀的魁北克認同。

On September 4, 2012, the independence seeking Parti Québécois (PQ) regains the office of the Quebec premier for the first time since 2003. Pauline Marois, the leader of the PQ becomes the first female Premier Minister of Quebec. In this article, I analyze the determining factors to affect the third referendum after 2012 Quebec General Election. Marois has the internal and external constraints of leading a minority government, which could reject her desire to hold another referendum.