檢視民進黨之中國政策

CLA on DPP's China Policy

2012 年是民進黨總統大選敗選年，也是中國熱的燃起年，有高層 人士訪問中國，有研究中國的單位成立，有整合中國政策的平台架起。 大家似乎希望平心靜氣一些來認識這個既熟悉又陌生的民族、國家、和文化。本文以未來學的理論和方法「多層次因果分析」，來解析民進黨中國政策。並以四個未來的可能途徑，分別為一切照舊，第二是 成長，第三是崩壞，第四是轉型，討論民進黨與中國互動之可能情境 發展。結語為民進黨應摒除對中國互動之焦慮感，釐清中國政策之長 期目標，切勿盲目地以中國政策為總統大選敗選主因為由，在未確立 定位與策略之前，急於與中國交往。

The defeat in the Presidential election of 2012 seemed to open the gate to China's interaction for DPP. Right after the election, many forums were held to research all issues of China and formal institution and agency was built within DPP to deal with this long time antagonist. China studies became one of the major agenda for DPP's future. Looking through rational and unbiased lens to this great power was unprecedentedly taken as very appropriate approach for DPP to remain competitive with the KMT in the future. This article uses Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) to explore the very essence of DPP's China policy. Additionally, four scenarios of the DPP-China future interaction were drawn to deepen this discussion, they are business as usual, growth, collapse, and transformation. The conclusion is DPP should clearly bring up its vision for Taiwan and China relations, followed by comprehensive strategic planning. It will be problematic to be driven by the anxiety of developing immediate contact with China to make reckless policies.