氣候變遷下災害風險評估指標系統之建立

The Establishment of the Evaluation System for Disaster Risk under Climate Change

近年來全球氣候變遷將提高城鄉環境之脆弱度，並加劇災害造成的衝擊。國際組織如Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: IPCC(2007)及European Climate Change Programme:ECCP(2006)均建議世界各國應建立評估系統，以評估自己國家面對氣候變遷引發之災害風險。因此，本研究考量氣候變遷狀況下，透過文獻回顧及專家座談會，初擬評估指標；透過模糊德爾菲(Fuzzy Delphi)法，篩選評估指標；最後藉由模糊分析階層程序(Fuzzy Fuzzy Analytic HierarchyProcess, FAHP)法，決定指標之權重。整體評估指標系統，分為氣候變遷因素、自然環境條件、社會環境條件等3 大面向、6 項項目，以及16 項指標。其中權重較重之指標分別為：雨季、夏季、乾季、地質災害敏感地及土石流保全人數。

Climate change will increase the vulnerability of physical environment and caused serious losses through natural disasters. International organizations such as Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: IPCC(2007)and European Climate Change Programme: ECCP(2006)suggested that each country should develop its own system to evaluation the disaster risk caused by climate change. Therefore, this study based on the climate circumstance to draft evaluation indexes through literature review and experts workshop. Then, this study sorts evaluation indexes through Fussy Delphi method. Finally, this study decides weights of indexes through fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. The entire evaluation system includes three themes: climate change factor, physical environment condition and social economic condition; six items and 16 indictors. Among the indictors, rainy season, summer, dry season, geological hazards sensitive area and debris flow vulnerable population have higher weighting.