住太遠所以不投票？台灣不在籍民眾選舉行為之初探

Too Far to Vote? A Preliminary Analysis of Residential Absentees’ Electoral Behaviour in Taiwan

台灣關於不在籍投票的研究大多著重於規範性與制度性分析。不同於這些研究，本文聚焦於台灣不在籍民眾的實際選舉行為。透過分析普查與抽樣調查的資料，本文發現在2000年之後舉行的全國性選舉中，相較於居住在戶籍地的選民，不在籍者的確較少前往投票。不過針對2012年總統選舉作進一步的分析後發現，即便不在籍的選民全都去投票，2012年總統選舉的結果也不會因而逆轉。礙於資料的限制，本文的分析對象僅能包括居住在台灣的民眾。未來的研究應設法納入居住在國外但設籍於台灣的民眾，以對實施不在籍投票所可能產生的影響作更精確的分析。

Most of studies on absentee voting in Taiwan have concentrated on normative and institutional analysis. This article brings empirical analysis onto focus by using survey as well as census data to examine the electoral behaviour of the electors who do not reside in their registered households, i.e. residential absentees. Research results – which cover several nationwide elections held between 2000 and 2012 – confirm that residential absentees are indeed less likely to vote than are those who live in their registered households. However, the data show no compelling evidence for the claim that the result of the 2012 presidential election would have been turned around, had all of residential absentees turned out to vote. Due to the limitations of data, these findings can only be extrapolated to people who are residentially absent but still living in Taiwan. In order to make better projections about the possible impacts of the forthcoming absentee voting system, future research should therefore manage to include the other types of residential absentees into investigation.