臺灣地區部分工時就業之預測與公共政策

The Forcasting of Part-Time Employment in Taiwan Area and Public Policy

本文主要在於說明臺灣地區部分工時就業的特性及其存在的問題，並利用雙對數最小平方法預測未來部分工時就業人數。部分工時就業具有與景氣波動呈反向變動的關係，且深受產業結構調整的影響。農業部門的部分工時就業人數與所占比率正在逐漸下降，服務業部門不論人數與比率均持續增加中，目前約有50%的部分工時就業者是投入服務業行列中。70%的部分工時就業者係屬於較低工資與技術的工作人員，農林漁牧守獵人員約占40%，生產有關工人、機械設備操作及體力工維持在32%左右。此外，教育程度高低與部分工時就業比率成反向變動，以小學畢業者居多，約占50%。在影響部分工時就業的因素中，以農業對服務業產值比、有偶婦女勞動參與率、勞保資方實際技付金額的影響效果最大，其彈性值分別為1.508、1.070、0.675；GDP平減指數年增率與失業率則為顯著。推估至公元2000年2005年，臺灣地區部分工時就業的比率分別是12.04%（低推估）~16.83%（高推估）及18.03%~25.22%，人數為1991~1665千人及1908~2669千人，成長速度驚人。政策搭配上，政府應一方面妥善規劃托兒與養老制度，建立「老年人力銀行」，激勵已婚婦女與退休者再度進入勞動市場，繼續貢獻社會；另一方面鼓勵雇主改善雇用制度，創造部分工時就業機會，如短期工作（short-time work）、採行「分工制（sharing job）等。此外，對於工作時間與所得水準在特定水準以上的部分工時就業者，明訂相關法令的保護，令其享有對等的社會安全措施。

This paper attempts to explain the characteristics and question of part-time employ-ment, and use dual log least square technique to forcast the numbers of part-time worker in Taiwan area in 2000 and 2005 A.D. Part-time employment has inverse relationship with business cycle, and is deeply affected by the adjustment in the structure of domestic production. There are the trends that the number and ratio of part-time employment are decreasing in agricultural sector and increasing in services sector. Among part-time workers, 50% of them engage in service jobs and 70% of them belong to lower wage and skilled. The gross products of agricultural relative to services, the labor force participation rate of married woman, and the employer actual payment of labor insurance, have the largest effect on part-time employment, and their elaciticity coefficients are 1.508, 1.070, and 0.675. Annual changes in implicit price deflator for GDP and unemployment rate are most statistical significantly. In 2000 and 2005 AD., the percentages of part-time employment are 12.04% （low projection）~16.83% （high projection） and 18.03%~25.22%, and the numbers of part-time employment are 1.191~1.665 millions and 1.908~2.669 millions. Apparently, part-time employment will have a rapid growth in future then years. On public policy, the government must plan childcare and aliment system suitly and establish elder manpower bank, to attract the married women and retired to return to the labor market. At the same time government can encourage the employer to improve hire system and create more part-time jobs, for example, to adopt short-time job or to share job etc. Finally, the government must also enact laws to protect those who work more than certain number of hours and earn more than certain amount of wage per week to enjoy the right of social security system.