證券市場績效對公司價值與資本結構之影響－－臺灣政權論替前後期間之實證

The Impact of Stock Market Performance on the Firm's Value and Capital Structure: An Empirical Study of the Taiwan Governmental Change

本研究分析1998年至2002年，台灣新、舊政權輪替對上市公司資本結構與公司價值變化之影響。首先，以one－way MANOVA方法，檢定國內總體經 濟暨金融環境、證券市場績效以及國際股市活動等環境動態變數之結構性變化；其次，利用two－way MANOVA、two－way MANCOVA以及two－sample t－test 方法，檢測並比較新、舊政權期間與電子及非電子產業間之公司特徵變數的差異性；最後，構建多元迴歸模型，剖析影響電子及非電子產業之公司價值與資本結構的重要因素。
研究結果發現，在新政權期間，國內總體經濟暨金融環境、證券市場績效以及國際股市皆呈現衰退的現象；電子產業之財務安定力提昇但營運與股票交易績效卻明顯變差，非電子產業之財務、營運與股票交易績效則明顯減弱。此外，國內總體經濟暨金融環境與證券市場績效兩項因素對公司價值的影響明顯增高，其對非電子產業的衝擊高於電子產業。

This study investigates the relationship among governmental change, firm’s value and capital structure of listed firms in Taiwan for the period 1998-2002. First, it utilizes one-way MANOVA to test the structure change of macroeconomic/financial status and domestic/international stock market performances during this period. Then, two-way MANOVA, two-way MANCOVA and two-sample t-test are used to examine the impact of governmental change and ITINIT industry effect on firm-specific variables. In addition, this paper also provides a multiple regression model to empirically explore factors associated with firm’s value and capital structure before and after governmental change.
The results show that the domestic/international stock market performances and macroeconomic/financial status worsened after the governmental change. During this period, the IT firms’ financial safety increased, but their operating and stock performances declined considerably. The NIT firms’ financial, operating and stock performances all weakened considerably. Moreover, this study finds that the effects of domestic macroeconomic/financial status and stock market performance on firms’ value did increase after the governmental change; and the impacts of NIT firms are higher than on IT firms.