應用模糊理論建立旅遊風險分析矩陣

Fuzzy Set Theory for Building Analysis Matrixes of Travel Risk

由於觀光旅遊涉及遊客對於風險屬性主觀的心理認知，以及知覺風險判斷上的模糊性，使遊客在購買旅遊產品時產生不確定性。本研究藉由旅遊風險發生之「可能性」和「嚴重性」模糊隸屬值，建立旅遊風險分析矩陣，用以分析遊客在各個知覺風險屬性認知上的差異性。透過風險分析短陣及遊客對旅遊風險策略認同度，建立旅遊知覺風險趨避策略矩陣，用以分析遊客喜好的風險趨避策略。最後本研究以金門國家公園的遊客作為研究對象，研究結果顯示：遊客對於財務性和實體性風險屬性，認為有較高的風險性及嚴重性，即隱含有高知覺風險的特質，且偏好購買旅遊保險的風險趨避策略。

Travel is involved in the visitors’ subjective cognition on risk attributes and the fuzziness on perceived risk judgment, so the visitors feel uncertainty in purchasing travel products. In this paper we use the membership grade of possibility and serious for travel risk to build the analysis matrix of travel risk, which can describe the visitors’ different cognition on perceived risk attribute. After that, we combine the analysis matrix and the degree of risk preference strategy, to build the travel perceived risk averse strategy matrix. This can be used to analyze the visitors’ preference averse strategy. In the end, we use the visitors of Kinmen National Park as an example. The result is visitors think the financial and physical risk attributes are higher risks and more serious. This implies that visitors have the characteristic of higher perceived risk and they prefer the averse strategy of buying the travel assurance.