泰國因應2011年洪災的政策：災害管理觀點之分析

Analyzing 2011 Thailand Floods from the Perspective of Disaster Management

時值2011年7月，泰國北部與東北部陸續降下豪大雨，其所肇致的洪流災害造成該國嚴重的經濟損失與人民對於盈拉（Yingluck Shinawatra）政府的信任感產生動搖，由於政府單位在因應災害問題中擔任首要角色，故討論政府單位之災害防救管理功能則有其重要意義。災害管理在1970年代形成一專門學科，「災害管理學」的意涵是從災害預防至災害救助整體動員、經濟與行政管理，延伸到受災者的心理重建等要項；此外，災害管理是危機狀態下的管理程序與方法，其決策情境具有「不確定性、高複雜性、資訊不全、溝通困難與後果難測」等特質，故災害管理研究強調危機組織、人力物資與資訊溝通的整合。災害管理工作攸關人民生命和財產安全，基於公共服務和社會管理的前提與基礎，政府單位應加強災害管理目標，策定法令規範並建構單一窗口的國家和地方常設管理機構，同時具體從目標、方法、進程及結果進行策略性調整。此次洪災中，盈拉政府成立「水災救援行動中心」（Flood Relief Operations Center，FROC），盼在災害防救的工作系統上，藉由明確即時的決策資訊提供，輔助各單位組織建立災害管理合作平台，解決災害應變的整合問題。然而，盱衡泰國國內政局現況，內部賡續存在矛盾和對立性，表徵在朝野政黨的共識與互信存在諸多歧見。爰此，洪水災害帶給盈拉政府在政治與經濟層面的橫逆挑戰頗有增溫之勢，倘使處理失據，恐因經濟危機而引發政治性問題。循此，本文研究旨趣將芻論大規模災難的困境以敘明災害管理重要性，繼以災害管理學觀點，建立可操作性的理論框架與因應對策。同時，檢視2011年洪災對泰國政治經濟結構的影響，解讀盈拉政府所需面對的難題與衝突，另對泰國政治與經濟層面後續發展、現實機遇與具體挑戰提出若干分析理路，此為本文研究主軸與思考面向。

In the wake of the worst flooding occurred in July 2011, Thailand endured enormous economic losses and people's trust in Yingluck Shinawatra government has declined. Government plays the crucial role in disaster response plans, therefore it is meaningful to discuss the functions of government in disaster prevention and rescue management. Disaster Management can be defined as the organization and management of resources and responsibilities for dealing with all humanitarian aspects of emergencies, in particular preparedness, response and recovery in order to lessen the impact of disasters. Because of the 2011 Thailand floods, Yingluck Shinawatra government established the Flood Relief Operations Center in order to provide timely information and guidance in crisis communications for the government organizations. However, the political situation in Thailand is full of conflict and confrontation and there is a lack of consensus and mutual trust between the Yingluck Shinawatra government and the opposition parties. The political issues complicated disaster management of 2011 Thai floods. This article is about to analyzing the economic impact of the floods, the difficulty that Yingluck Shinawatra government faced, and the future development of Thai politics.