檢視政治能力與總生育率的關係：以漠南非洲1980到2011年為例

Exploring the Link between Political Capacity and Total Fertility Rate: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2011

漠南非洲地區總生育率居高不下的現象及其對社會經濟發展的影響，向來是學者、政府與國際組織注意的焦點。實際上，根據數據顯示，漠南非洲48個國家不乏總生育率實質下降的案例。過去在解釋總生育率變化時，學者多從社會或是經濟發展角度著手。然而，這些解釋不見得適用於在前述面向發展均相對較落後的漠南非洲。本文的目的有三：第一、本文從政治角度出發，釐清漠南非洲國家之所以生育率變化差異甚大，主要是受到政治能力影響；第三、儘管目前政治能力的討論十分豐富，哪一面向的政治能力可以降低漠南非洲的生育率則仍未有定論。因此，本文也嘗試界定哪個面向的政治能力較能降低生育率。透過1980～2011年的數據，本文發現政治能力愈強的國家愈能夠降低總生育率。至於在不同政治能力的面向中，汲取及調控能力在理論與實證的應用上較佳、至於合法化能力與強制能力無法降低生育率，且解釋力也較顯不足。

The phenomena of high total fertility rates (TFRs) and their impact on social and economic development within the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region have attracted the attention of scholars, governments, and international organizations. However, data from the 48 SSA countries show that some have reduced TFR significantly, while others have not. To explain why TFRs vary, scholars have focused attention on social and economic explanations. Yet these explanations may not be applicable to SSA due to its relatively low overall development status. This article serves two main purposes. First, we start from a political perspective to explore whether or not changes in TFRs of SSA countries are affected by political capacity. Second, although there has been extensive discussion on political capacity, which dimension(s) of it contribute to lower TFR in SSA are still indeterminate. This article will identify which dimension(s) of political capacity can reduce TFR. Using data from between 1980 and 2011, this article finds that SSA countries with stronger political apacity are able to reduce fertility rates. In addition, looking at the dimensions of political capacity, there is theoretical and empirical support for the effect of extractive and steering capacities in reducing fertility rates. Legitimaztion and coercive capacities, on the other hand, have a quite limited application.