總統選舉、國家認同與侍從主義的消失？－－2000年後雲林縣的個案研究

Presidential Elections, National Identity, and the Decline of Clientelism in Yunlin County after 2000

臺灣在民主轉型後，侍從主義是否會消失？本文主張侍從主義在臺灣社會不會消失而是在調適。很多研究發現過去以「縣」為單位的「派系政治」，已逐步轉型以立委選區或是鄉鎮長、縣市議員為單位的派系政治，但沒有提出一套解釋的理論。本文從兩個方面來解釋這個變遷過程：首先，臺灣的總統選舉，有效產生全國化的政治，亦即以國、民兩黨為主的全國性競爭體系。但是，國家認同分歧是總統選舉結果最大的解釋因素，國家認同不像盛行在歐美或拉丁美洲國家左、右兩派意識型態的分歧，無法具體落實到公共政策。因此，總統候選人在當選後，仍需以特定的資源分配模式，也就是用利益交換結合各種地方力量。侍從主義在臺灣杜會並不會消失，只是比以前更「零碎化」、「個人化」與「山頭化」而已，政策綱領式的政黨體系短期內在臺灣仍無法形成。本文以雲林縣的個案作為基礎，透過數十位地方政治菁英的深度訪談、投開票資料分析與政治酬庸等方法，論證本文的看法。

What has happened to the clientelism closely associated with the authoritarian regime following Taiwan's democratization? This paper argues that while clientelism in Taiwan will not disappear, it is facing transformative pressures. The clientelism of the authoritarian era focused around factional politics at the county level has gradually evolved into factional politics centered on legislative districts and city or county councilors. While a nationalization of party systems has already emerged, clientelist forms of politics continue to influence Taiwan's democracy. This paper explains this process of change on two dimensions. First, presidential elections have led to the emergence of a competitive nationalization of party systems centered on two major parties-the Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). However, the paper also points out that aside from presidential elections, the transformation of clientelism in Taiwan is affected by the island's political cleavages. The national identity cleavage in Taiwan is unlike the left-right ideological cleavages found in both the West and Latin America and cannot be reflected in concrete public policy. Therefore, the winning candidate for the presidency, thinking rationally, will use resource allocation and interest exchange to effectively link up with local political forces and increase his own or his party's re-election chances. Therefore, clientelism in Taiwan will not disappear. However, it will be more fragmentary and individualized that in the past. A party system centered on policy manifestos has not developed in Taiwan. This paper is based on the cases of Yunlin County, and uses in-depth interviews with local elites to describe, analyze, and demonstrate this process of clientelist transformation.