美國國關學界對中國之評估：以攻勢現實主義與權力轉移論為例

Evaluations of China in American International Relations Scholarship: Offensive Realism and Power Transition Theory

除權力轉移論者外，美國國際關係理論家在21世紀前幾乎都不認為中國的實力會趕上美國。直到北京的實力已無法忽視，才將之描繪成美國最大的對手。從權力政治觀點出發的攻勢現實主義者，認為強大的中國必將挑戰美國，所以華府要阻撓其發展。但同樣重視權力的權力轉移論者則主張，新興強權若對國際現狀感到滿意，就不會挑戰，所以美國應與中國合作。這兩派對國際體系本質、國力衡量方式，與國家意圖是否值得探究的看法都不同。對國家意圖看法的差別，使它們對華府提出了截然相反的政策建議。

Before the 21st century, very few international relations theorists in the United States believed that China would become almost as powerful as the United States. Scholars only started to depict China the most significant rival to the United States when its rise had become undeniable.On the basis of power politics, offensive realists claim that a powerful China will challenge the United States, so Washington should obstruct China's growth. However, power transition theorists use the same power politics to argue that a satisfied emerging power will not challenge the international status quo. Therefore, the United States should cooperate with China. These two schools disagree about the nature of the international system, the measurement of national capabilities, and the issue of national intentions. The disagreement over China's intentions has led to opposing policy recommendations to Washington.