台灣地區內科醫師人力供需之研究－－灰色預測模式之應用

A Study of the Supply and Demand of Internists Manpower in Taiwan - An Application of Grey Prediction Model

本文以灰色預測GM（1，1）模式，預測台灣地區民國89至93年內科醫師總供給人數與總需求人數。本文研究結果顯示，民國89至93年台灣地區內科醫師人力是供過於求。本研究結果可提供政府相關單位擬定台灣地區內科醫師人力政策之參考。

This study used the GM (1, 1) model of grey prediction to forecast annual supply and demand of internists from 2000 to 2004 in Taiwan. The results of the study indicated that the supply exceeds the demand in internists. The authorities concerned may use these results as references to determine the physician manpower policy in Taiwan.