中國大陸上市銀行市盈率探討

Study on the Influencing Factors of the Price-earnings Ratio of Chinese Bank Listed Companies

中國大陸銀行業搭上了中國大陸每年接近10％的GDP成長率，企業及民間有大量資金的需求，造就一波經濟快速起飛的狀態，2005年至2010年每年平均的利潤約高達20～40％的成長率。但與獲利能力不相稱的地方，中國大陸銀行業這幾年來的股價表現疲弱，上市銀行類股市盈率約僅在4～8倍之間，明顯低於亞洲鄰國及歐美國家銀行水準（約10～25倍）和國內其他行業水準。無論是在歐美發達國家的資本市場還是如中國大陸這樣的新興資本市場，市盈率指標都很受人關注。市盈率估值法是機構投資者和個人投資者最常用的估值方法之一，也是國外成熟的證券市場最常用的股票估值方法，具有簡單直觀、計算方便等優點。因此，市盈率指標非常值得我們去深入研究。本篇研究主要在探討為何中國大陸銀行業上市銀行市盈率絕對值低於市場整體水準。可以從每股收益和股票價格兩方面來解釋。每股收益高，主要是因為中國大陸銀行近幾年的高業績，銀行業表現優異的每股盈餘和股東權益報酬率都與市盈率呈負相關關係。從股價來看，股票價格太低，這是因為中國股民不認可中國大陸上市銀行的股價，從總體環境面來說，中國大陸近年來表現優異的GDP成長率很大部分的成分是高比例的固定資本形成總額占GDP總額，且這兩個影響因素都是和市盈率呈負相關關係。

Due to the rapid growth of China economy, the entrepreneurs have mass demand on capitals. They made a fortune. However, compared to the entrepreneurs, the profitability of China banks is still weak. The P/E ratio of listed banks in China is significantly lower than companies in other industry. P/E ratio is one of the most common indicators investors value a company. Besides, it is easy to calculate. It is worthy to investigate the low P/E ratios of china banks. This study compares the P/E ratio between China banks and non-China banks and it also concerns the factors that influence P/E ratio, including both firm specific and macro-economic factors. The denominator of P/E ratio, earnings per share, is really high due to the high yield of china banks in recent years. It comes out low P/E ratio. On the other side, the nominator of P/E ratio, stock price, is low. These are two main factors that influence P/E ratio.