混合複數類神經模糊與自動回歸差分平均移動方法之智慧型時間序列預測模型

Intelligent Time Series Forecasting Model Combining Complex Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Model and ARIMA Method

本研究係分別於2003、2006、2009 與2012 年針對台灣前5000 大企業進行其ERP 系統應用情況之問卷調查。本研究主要係針對已導入或正在導入ERP 系統的台灣企業來探討其ERP 系統應用之十年演化情況，進而檢視ERP 生命週期各階段關鍵之管理議題。本研究發現了一些台灣企業應用ERP 系統之創新技術擴散現象，而本研究由調查結果所歸納的ERP 生命週期各階段之一些管理議題，值得進一步加以深入探討。學術界、企業界與 ERP 導入顧問也可以參考本研究結果而提出與擬定有效的ERP 導入方法與管理計畫，以提高成功導入ERP 系統的機會。

This paper presents the results of four cross-sectional surveys of the top 5000 largest corporations in Taiwan, undertaken in 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2012. We focus on a longitudinal study of the used or intended implementation of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems of firms to examine the “innovation diffusion” phenomenon and examine key management issues during the “ERP life cycle” phases. Our initial empirical analysis provides us with a number of interesting results. We find that the implementation of an ERP project entails an innovation diffusion phenomenon. Our analysis further shows that some important management issues deserve more attention during the life cycle of ERP projects. Based on our findings, practitioners, academics and entrepreneurs will benefit from this knowledge to prepare an effective management plan to increase ERP implementation success.