成霖公司需求鏈管理解決方案的發展

The Development of Globe Union's Demand Chain Management Solutions

本個案透過主人翁──營運總部流程效率處的周副總對公司需求鏈管理方案發展的回顧，引導發展需求管理方案歷程的三個重要議題：(1)成霖需求規劃的問題與挑戰、(2)需求預測系統的設計與流程改善、(3)持續的預測準確度追蹤、績效改善的方法與機制。個案的開始介紹成霖公司的背景、通路、品牌與產業特性，導引出現行需求規劃的問題與挑戰；另外透過兩階段系統的導入歷程──FF系統與DCM (Demand Chain Management)系統，了解需求管理不能單只靠軟體系統，還需整體的流程改革及完整的配套措施搭配。個案最後陳述DCM系統上線後遇到金融大海嘯，讓原本已有顯著改善的預測準確度因而下滑，個案亦顯示了定期追蹤績效並持續地檢討，才能即時因應環境的變化確保其競爭優勢。

Through reviewing the development of demand chain management (DCM) system by protagonist Mr. Chou, Vice President of Globe Union’s business system, three important issues in developing the DCMS are invoked: (1) the problems and challenge of Globe Union’s demand planning, (2) the design and process improvement of demand forecasting system, (3) method and mechanism of sustained tracking and improving forecast accuracy. This article first introduced Globe Union’s company background, channel, brand and the characteristics of plumbing industry, to derive the problems and challenge of existing demand planning approach. Then, through two phases in developing demand forecasting system – FF system and DCM system, this case illustrates that an effective demand management can not only rely on software system alone, it also requires process re-engineering and related supporting measures. Finally, the global economy crisis occurred just after the new solution was implemented, DCM system’s forecast accuracy was dramatically decreased, it illustrates the importance of periodical tracking forecasting performance and continuous improvement of forecasting parameters and approaches.