金馬「小三通」交流變化率之研究

A Study of the Change Rates of the 'Mini-three-links' Exchanges in Kinmen and Matsu

兩岸交流具非常重要之政治經濟意義。「小三通」等兩岸經貿交流，同時具經濟與政治經濟理論等學理基礎，並具非常複雜之政治經濟關係。本研究主要採取實證研究途徑，經統計分析等研究方法，以金馬「小三通」交流次數變化率進行研究，深入探討「小三通」有關問題。本研究發現「小三通」各季資料變化率平均數階為正具大多數相當高。可見金馬「小三通」實施非常成功。但是，各變化率之變動非常大，且階不符合常態分配，可能是受經濟與政治、社會等非經濟因素影響。在交流變化率檢定中，有６項之相關係數達顯著，但值並不高。各變化率間經無母數中位數檢定，結果顯示並無顯著差異。而「大三通」實施前金馬「小三通」各季資料變化率平均值與最大值皆較「大三通」實施後大很多。此外，「大三通」實施後與「小三通」之經貿交流成長關係，未來可就四種方向深入觀察。

Cross-strait exchanges have very important political and economic meanings. The 'Mini-three-links' exchanges of cross-strait economy and trade have the theoretical bases of economic theories and political economy theories, and they have very complex political and economic relations. This study adopted the positive research approach and mainly used statistical methods to research the change rate of the 'Mini-three-links' exchanges of cross-strait economy and trade. This study found that the average quarterly data rates of the 'Mini-three-links' exchanges of cross-strait economy and trade were all positive and most quite high. Therefore, the 'Mini-three-links' of Kinmen and Matsu were successful and growing well. But the change rates of the 'Mini-three-links' exchanges were very large and did not follow the normal distribution. It may be due to the complex economic factors and non-economic factors of political and social factors, etc. of the Cross-strait Relations. In the change rates of exchanges test, six of the correlation coefficients were significantly but the values were not high. In the nonparametric test of the change rates of exchanges, the results showed no significant differences. Before the implementation of the 'Big-three-links', the average and big values of the change rates of exchanges were larger than the values of the 'Big-three-links' put into practice. In addition, to study the relationships of the growths of the exchanges of economic and trade between the 'Big-three-links' and the 'Mini-three-links' have four directions in the future.