從鄰避效應與認知失調解析台灣民眾的核電風險認知與態度

Risk perceptions and attitudes of Taiwan citizens regarding nuclear power generation based on NIMBY and cognitive dissonance theory

目標：運用鄰避與認知失調理論的觀點，探討核電廠鄰近地區、潛在影響地區以及遠離地區居民之核能風險認知與核電支持度。方法：以2010年與2011年對台灣民眾進行電話抽樣調查的資料，運用結構方程模式比較三類地區樣本之模式差異性。結果：本研究發現，福島核災前居住在核電廠潛在影響地區的居民，其核能發電缺點論述與核電安全性的負向關係為三地區中最強，而鄰近地區的居民卻弱於前者。福島核災後各地區民眾對核電安全性與支持度的平均值均降低，但兩者間之相關係數則提昇。結論：影響核能風險認知的主要論點為環境與健康等考量，包括了破壞生態、核廢料隱憂以及特殊災害的威脅等，可用鄰避效應解釋。然而，當核電設施建置完成，若長期未發生重大災害，並配合良好的安全管制措施，當地居民會降低認知失調，核能發電缺點論述對風險知覺之影響會因而減低。但福島核災後，民眾對核能發電可能產生整體性的認知失調，建議相關單位宜擬定因應策略以減輕民眾之認知失調。

Objectives: Based on 'not in my back yard' (NIMBY) and cognitive dissonance theory, we examined the nuclear risk perceptions and support of nuclear power generation for citizens who lived in 'neighborhood,' 'potentially affected,' and 'distant' areas. Methods: We conducted a randomized telephone survey among Taiwan citizens in 2010 and 2011, and used structural equation modeling to compare the different result patterns among the three areas. Results: Before the Fukushima nuclear disaster occurred, the relationship between arguments purporting the disadvantages of nuclear power generation and risk perceptions for citizens in potentially affected areas was the strongest among the three areas, and the relationship for citizens in neighborhood areas was weaker than citizens in potentially affected areas. After the Fukushima nuclear disaster, however, the mean values of risk perceptions and support of nuclear power generation decreased, while the correlation between the risk perceptions and support of nuclear power generation increased. Conclusions: The major arguments purporting the disadvantages of nuclear power generation, which affected risk perceptions, were based on environment- and health-related concerns, such as ecologic damage, nuclear waste, and the threat of special disasters. After the nuclear power facilities were installed, local citizens had little cognitive dissonance if there were no serious disasters over a long period of time and the government conducted appropriate safety control measures. Therefore, arguments purporting the disadvantages of nuclear power generation had little influence on risk perceptions. Authorities should implement corresponding strategies to alleviate cognitive dissonance amongst the citizens.