朝鮮半島的國際政治學：由地緣政治轉變到地緣經濟

Changing International Politics on the Korean Peninsula: from Geo-politics to Geo-economics

傳統的朝鮮半島國際政治一向是以戰略安全為主軸，惟近期隨著朝鮮半島及其周邊國際環境的變化，朝鮮半島國際政治的主軸已開始由地緣政治轉變到地緣經濟。而導致此一轉變的主要動力來源是中共領導人的更易。中共國家主席習近平今年初上任以來調整外交政策的優先順位，積極推動以構建「新型大國關係」為主軸的對美國外交政策。本文主旨即在點出中共朝鮮半島政策的調整是有其脈絡可循的，堪稱是中國21世紀大戰略的2.0升級版。其主要目的是在降低中美兩強的戰略推擠，構建中美兩強合作互利的經貿平臺，將有利於解決朝鮮半島危機、化解中日的紛爭與亞洲經濟整合的正面發展。首先將指出國際關係的三大變數，其次是探討中美兩強因應這些國際環境特徵的策略，主要聚焦於當前中國外交政策的優先順位及其對朝鮮半島國際政治的衝擊、兩韓的因應對策，終而討論朝鮮半島國際政治的主軸由地緣政治轉變到地緣經濟對東亞國際政經與戰略的影響。

Traditionally international politics on the Korean peninsula was strategically oriented. However, the axis of international politics on the Korean peninsula has changed from geo-politics to geo-economics due largely to the emergence of Chinese top leader Xi Jinping. With an aim to shape new types of big power relationship with the United States, President Xi decides to reprioritize China's policy toward Northeast Asia. This policy shift has its origin (a response to changing international environment since the second half of 1990s) and can be regarded as a part of the second phase of China's grand strategy for the 21st century. The salient example of this policy change was President Xi's July trip to Seoul this year. He became the first top Chinese leader who paid his visit to South Korea ahead of North Korea. Moreover, he reached an agreement with his counterpart Park Geun-hye to sign bilateral FTA by the end of this year. The represents a tactical shift of China's approach to Northeast Asian economic integration from focusing on cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) and China-Korea-Japan trilateral FTA to China-Korea FTA. This paper is to explore reasons behind this policy shift, then two Koreas' coping strategies, finally implications for peace and stability in Northeast Asia. China's liberalist approach has brought about some initial positive results including Japan's serious attitude toward China-Korea-Japan FTA negotiations, Taiwan's actively seeking agreement on trade in goods with China and North Korea's downgrading level of threats and resorting to diplomatic initiatives. History proves that Sino- US economic cooperation is the best way to bring peace and prosperity in the region. Their collaboration to promote FTAAP could serve as a best chance to reach this goal.