An Analysis of India's recent engagements in Comprehensive and other Trade Agreements in East and Southeast Asia

最近印度與東亞積極簽署全面經貿伙伴關係協定之剖析

India mostly depended on a multilateral trade route to secure export growth during the first decade of WTO. However, given the slow progress of the Doha Round after the Cancun Ministerial, India's dependence on regional trade agreements (RTAs) increased. India's adverse merchandise trade balance vis-à-vis China and several other ASEAN countries, has led it to focus on alternative routes, the primary being comprehensive economic cooperation / partnership agreements (CECAs / CEPAs) with its East and Southeast Asian neighbours, e.g., ASEAN, Japan and South Korea. Japan, South Korea and Singapore can emerge as major providers of FDI to India and also offer a vibrant market for Indian professional service exports. India has already attempted to forge ties with these countries through comprehensive trade agreements, which cover merchandise and services trade as well as investment collaboration. This paper attempts to understand the benefits for India from the deepened trade relations with East and Southeast Asian economies. The analysis concludes that India needs to augment its competitiveness through a simultaneous process of coordinated efforts and signing comprehensive trade and investment agreements with its East and Southeast Asian trade partners.

在世界貿易組織（WTO）成立後十年裡，印度多半倚賴此一多邊貿易途徑來確保出口的成長。然而由於在坎昆（Cancun）部長級會議後杜哈（Doha）回合進展緩慢，印度對區域貿易協定（regional trade agreements，RTAs）的倚賴遂日益深化。而對中國大陸與一些東協（ASEAN）國家貨品貿易逆差的負面衝擊使印度聚焦於與東亞與東南亞鄰邦簽署全面經貿伙伴關係協定（comprehensive economic cooperation／partnership agreements，CECAs/CEPAs），即東協與日本、南韓。印度期望從與日本、南韓與新加坡獲致資金來活絡其專業服務業的出口市場。本文主旨在試圖從日益深化的印度與東亞、東南亞鄰邦經貿關係來理解印度的利益。我們的結論是印度需要透過同時一面與東亞、東南亞鄰邦洽簽全面經貿伙伴關係協定，一面與這些國家協調合作來加強印度的競爭力。