臺灣家庭美容美髮支出世代分析

Cohort Analysis of Household Beauty Salon Expenditures in Taiwan

美容美髮業係屬內需市場產業，發展利基植根於家庭消費支出的擴張。隨著「海峽兩岸服務貿易協議」的簽署，美容美髮業的未來發展，值得關注與重視。本文使用民國80年至100年家庭收支調查原始資料，運用世代分析方法，探討家庭美容美發支出。實證結果發現，不同世代家庭美容美髮支出主要受到家庭可支配所得、家庭人口規模、與十四歲以下小孩數的影響。在整體世代家庭方面，家庭美容美髮支出受到世代效應與時期效應影響，家庭美容美髮支出呈現下滑，這對於美容美髮業未來市場規模的擴展，是相當不利的發展。

The beauty salon industry is part of the domestic market， and the expansion of household expenditure within this industry is an important source of industrial growth. With the signing of the ＂Cross-Strait Agreement on Trade in Services＂ between Taiwan and China， the future development of the beauty salon industry in Taiwan is worthy of concern and attention. In this study， the cohort analysis method is applied to explore the beauty salon expenditures of households. Empirical results show that household disposable income， household size， and the number of children under the age of 14 have significant influence on the beauty salon expenditure in different cohorts. On the whole cohort of the household， due to cohort effects and time effects， reduced beauty salon expenditures result， which for the expansion of the beauty salon market in the future is a very unfavorable development.