少子化對德國中等教育英語師資供需之影響：系統動態學模式

The Impact of Low Birth Rate on the Demand and Supply of English Teacher in German Secondary Education : System Dynamics Approach

英語是國際主流語言，其重要性日增。非英語體系國家中，無不致力於英語教育。其中德國廣泛教授英語，並且擁有高標準的成果。然而，德國自1980年開始面臨中等教育英語師資供不足問題，此勢必影響英語教學效果，甚至造成師資供需失衡的危機。事實上影響師資供給與需求的因素眾多，其中供給因素包括師資培育制度與鼓勵政策等，而需求因素則包括每週英語教學時數、各類型學校之班級數與退休政策等，再加上出生人口數劇烈變化之環境因素的影響，形成一環環相扣、複雜且動態的結構。本研究以宏觀的角度探討德國中等教育英語師資結構，並且建構少子化下對德國中等教育英語師資供需系統的衝擊。研究結果顯示：德國師資供需主要受到8個積量與16個率量變數所構成的12個關鍵環路所影響、教師退休政策改變可使得教師供給不足的衝擊減少、出生人口數減少可減緩教師短缺的壓力。

English is an international language, and it is more important nowadays. Germanyemphasizes foreign language teaching and get a very good performance. However,Germany has been faced with the problem of insufficient English teachers since 1980,which will affect the results of English teaching even causing the disequilibriumof demand and supply of English teachers. In fact, many factors contribute to thisdisequilibrium. Among them, English teachers cultivation systems and encouragementpolicies give rise to the supply imbalance. Weekly teaching hours, the number ofclasses, and retirement policy bring about the demand disequilibrium. The low birthrate is another environmental factor. All the factors above form a closely-rated,complicated and dynamic structure. This study is made by the structure of Englishteachers and building on a systematic demand and supply model of English teacherin German secondary education. The study results reveal that there are eight levelsand sixteen rates in twelve key causal loops. The changes of the retirement policy willdiminish the impact caused by the insufficiency of English teachers, and so will thelow birth rate.