灰色理論應用於兩岸三地貨櫃船運能供給之預測

The Grey Theory Approach to Forecasting Containership Capacity a

貨櫃運輸發展深受全球經濟景氣榮枯之影響，兩岸三地 (中國、臺灣、香港) 為全球主要貨櫃船運能供給來源與主要貿易國家或地區，其貨櫃運能發展勢必對全球經貿造成重大影響。本文主要以德國航運物流與經濟研究中心 (ISL) 最近十五年(1995-2009) 資料，從船舶供給面著手，分析兩岸三地貨櫃航運發展現況，採用灰色理論 (Grey Theory) 之灰預測 GM(1，1) 基本模式、GM(1，1) Alpha 模式與 GM(1，1)循環式殘差修正法 (RRGM(1，1)) 等三種模式，分析兩岸三地貨櫃船運能成長之趨勢，並進行精確度之比較。研究結果發現，近年全球與兩岸三地貨櫃船運能供給均呈現逐年遞增趨勢，兩岸三地貨櫃船船齡均已高於全球平均值，全球貨櫃船隊現以 4，000 TEUs 以上較大船舶佔多數。於運能成長趨勢方面，未來三年中國與臺灣為正成長，香港為負成長。本文研究結果可提供貨櫃航商營運上建議，及政府研擬航運政策之參考。

The development of container shipping was significantly affected by the prosperity and adversity of global economics. China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong are the main suppliers of global containership capacities, and also the main trading countries or areas of the world. Developments of capacities in these areas will
definitely have significant influence on global trades. This study started with the supply side of vessels, and analyzed current developments of container shipping among China, Taiwan and Hong Kong by using the latest fifteen-year statistics
from the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL). Furthermore, there are three GM(1,1) Models of Grey theory, Basic Model, Alpha Model and Recursive Residual GM(1,1), adopted to analyze growth trends of containership capacities, and the accuracy is also compared. The results showed that, not only the containership capacities of the world, but also the ones among China, Taiwan and Hong Kong are going to increase in the next few years. Secondly, the ages of containerships in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong are higher than world average. The major capacity of containership in the world is over 4,000 TEUs. As a result, it can be said that the containership capacities will be enlarged in China and Taiwan, but reduced in Hong Kong in the coming three years in terms of the growth trends. The forecasting results might be a good reference to container shipping corporations in operating suggestions, and government authorities in formulating supportive shipping policies.