散裝超輕便極限型船市場與BSI指數之預測

The Baltic Supramax Market and Forecasting BSI Index in Bulk Shipping Sectors

摘要:散裝航運市場中，近年以次要乾散貨相關指數變化最頻繁。本文分析波羅地海超輕便極限型(Supramax)船市場，針對波羅地海超輕便極限型船指數(BSI)進行預測，期能精確掌握此市場運價趨勢，以降低航運市場風險。主要採用灰色理論之灰預測GM(1,1)模式，構建波羅地海BSI 指數預測模式，進行實證分析。為探討預測精確度，以指數平滑法與之比較，並以後驗差檢驗模式進行分析。實證結果顯示，整體而言，BSI 指數未來三季（2008 年一月至九月）將朝上漲趨勢發展。就平均精確度而言，灰預測GM(1,1)模式預測結果優 於指數平滑法。研究結果可以提供船東或傭船人作為傭船決策之參考。

Abstract:In the dry bulk shipping market, the related indices of the minor dry bulk seaborne cargo fluctuate most frequently in recent years. This research analyzes the market of the Baltic Supramax vessels and forecasts Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) in order to predict the trends accurately and reduce risks in shipping market effectively. Therefore, we adopted the Grey Model (1,1) of Grey theory to construct the BSI forecast model; then used the exponential smoothing model to compare the accuracy, and also used posterior check to analyze the forecast results. In general, the result of this research shows that the trend of the bulk shipping market in the upcoming three seasons (from Jan. to Sept. 2008) would be at an upward trend. According to average accuracy, the empirical evidence shows that the GM(1,1) model has a better result than the exponential smoothing model. The results of this research can be provided as chartering decision-making references to shipowners or charterers.