定期船船期延遲之追趕策略分析

An Analysis of Recovery Schedule Proposal for Delayed Liner Ship

本研究即要針對現行定期貨櫃船當船期延遲時之追趕決策來做相關之探討，由於延遲的定期船在其追回船期之過程中，所可能面臨的問題、所要考慮的因素及其相關追趕措施所可能造成之影響，都是隨時可能變動並充滿著不確定性，且亦將可能彼此交互影響，這亦增加了要進行相關決策評判的困難度。因此，為較符合實際船期追趕作業之需求，有別於先前之相關研究大都以建構相關數學模式與技巧來尋求最佳化之結果，本研究則以藉由對現行之船期追趕作業現況之說明與對於延遲原因之分析探討，先行設法找出是否有避免延遲發生之可能。然後再透過對追趕決策作業進行深入剖析，以訂定出一套得以改善現行追趕作業與評估追趕方案之方法；最後再以WHAT / IF 的概念來進行較為實務層面的整體分析，透過對於各種追趕策略之運用及實際所可能產生之結果與影響的整體評估，來比較出每個船期追趕方案之優劣，以做為最後決策之有力參考依據。

This study presents the procedure of recovery proposal when a liner ship faces to a delay schedule. It is difficult to judge which recovery proposal is better than others due to too many uncertain factors involved at same time and many of these factors also affect each other. The proposed scheme is based on the consideration of delay reason and current recovery proposal without a mathematical model. To fit in with practical requirements, we propose an integrated system to analysis the possible results' affects on each recovery proposal by a what/if practical way. Our results show that the cost-recovery proposal is a better reference recovery proposal for the ship's operator.