利用灰關聯分析進行臺灣地區貨櫃船公司財務績效代表性指標之擷取

Applying grey relation analysis to find the representative indicators of financial ratios for evaluating financial performance of container shipping companies on Taiwan

為了評估台灣地區貨櫃船公司的財務績效，可將財務比率加以分群，再從其集群中挑選出代表性財務指標當成評估準則。基於這樣的概念，本研究將貨櫃船公司的財務比率初分為四個範疇，這些財務比率來自於資產負債表、損益表或是現金流量表等。而後，吾人利用灰關聯分析對每一個範疇的財務比率進行分群。灰關聯分析是一種著名的集群方法，常用於衡量那些元素資料訊息不完整或不清楚的關係。在台灣，貨櫃船公司的財務比率常以小樣本或短期資料表示，是屬於不完整訊息，因此灰關聯分析適合用於財務比率的分群。同時在分群之後，群內財務比率的關係要高，而群與群之間的關係要低。最後，代表性財務指標將從這些集群中挑選而出。

There is a speculation of a forthcoming shortage of seafarers in the shipping industry, specifically for officers. What this research interested is whether such a shortage will in fact occur by the time. We first begin with an analysis of the supply dimension followed by estimates of seafarer demand. Then, we introduce the regional trends and divisions between senior officers, junior officers and ratings. Finally, this research tries to provide some policy recommendations to decision makers for the reason to improve the recruitment at the traditional shipping industry in Taiwan. The developments in economic and commercial activities have restructured the international seafaring labor force and altered the structure of seafarer employment. Because of a considerable reduction in recruitment and retention, there has been a strict decline in the number of seafarers coming from developed countries these years. The age of seafarers coming from developed countries has also become older. So, it now lack of adequate seafarers from developed countries, couple with a desire to reduce labor unit costs for shipping companies, there should be an increasing demand for seafarers from developing countries around the world. Over the coming years we would expect to see a larger number of senior officers from the developing countries to replace the aging Taiwanese seafarers. But the shipping industry continues to prosper these years, developed countries and Taiwan will face the problem of officer shortage in the mean time. Is it means that the era of cheap seafarers providing has ended? Both shipping companies and government need to deliberate seriously whether they should train more Taiwanese officers in the near future to solve this shortage problem. For evaluating financial performance of container shipping companies on Taiwan, financial ratios would be clustered and then a representative indicator should be found from each cluster as an evaluation criterion. Based on the concept, financial ratios of container shipping companies are initially divided into four categories in this paper, and measured them by the messages of balance sheet, income statement or cash flow. Then, we utilize grey relation analysis to partition these financial ratios on each category into several clusters. Grey relation analysis being one of famous clustering methods is often applied in measuring the relation among the elements whose information is incomplete or unknown. On Taiwan, the financial ratios of container shipping companies usually express in small sample or short-term data belonging to incomplete messages, thus grey relation analysis is suitable for partitioning these financial ratios into several clusters. After clustering, the relations between financial ratios within clusters are high, whereas inter-clusters are low. Finally, representatives of financial ratios would be found form these clusters.