影響以房養老商品發展之因素探討

The Study on the Influencing Factors of the Development of Reverse Mortgages

本研究使用合作金庫商業銀行以房養老之核貸金額為樣本，加以探討消費者物價指數年增率、扶老比、扶養比及房價指數年增率對以房養老商品發展之影響程度。本研究採用月資料，研究期間為2015年12月至2020年12月，共61個月。經以向量自我迴歸模型加以實證，獲得以下的結論：消費者物價指數年增率及房價指數年增率對合作金庫銀行辦理以房養老每月核貸金額沒有顯著領先的影響。而扶老比及扶養比分別對每月核貸金額則有正向領先的影響，也就是扶老比及扶養比上升，則後續合作金庫銀行辦理以房養老核貸金額將隨之增加，反之亦然。

This study uses the loan amount of reverse mortgages of Taiwan Cooperative Bank to explore the impact of the annual growth rate of consumer price index, the old age dependency ratio, the dependency ratio, and the annual growth rate of housing price index on the loan amount of reverse mortgages. This study uses monthly data, and the study period is from December 2015 to December 2020, a total of 61 months. This study uses the Vector Autoregression model to proceed empirical research and obtain the following conclusions: The annual growth rate of the consumer price index and the annual growth rate of the housing price index have no significant leading influence on the loan amount of reverse mortgages of Taiwan Cooperative Bank. The old age dependency ratio and the dependency ratio have a positive and leading influence on the loan amount of reverse mortgages respectively, that is, if the old age dependency ratio and the dependency ratio increase, the loan amount of reverse mortgages of Taiwan Cooperative Bank will increase, and vice versa.