實質所得、相對價格、匯率與國際貿易之關聯分析：以臺灣對美貿易為例

The Relationship among Real Income, Price Ratio, Exchange Rate and International Trade-Evidence from Taiwan’s Trade to US

台灣對外貿易依存度高，國際貿易國眾多，美國與台灣貿易關係密切。國內外研究匯率、相對價格和實質所得對國際貿易影響的文獻不勝枚舉，但其結果都不太一致，因此本研究針對台灣主要貿易對象美國進行實證分析。實證結果顯示：1.台灣出口匯率、美國實質所得和相對出口價格對台灣向美國出口值都有顯著影響，相對出口價格係數為0.370876及出口匯率係數為-1.613815，在在顯示台灣外銷美國大多係屬缺乏彈性之商品；2.台灣進口匯率、台灣實質所得和相對進口價格對台灣向美國進口值都會有影響，美國相對進口價格下降或匯率升值，將導致台灣進口值增加，此結果意味著，台灣由美進口大多係屬富有彈性之商品。

Taiwan has high dependence on foreign trade which trades with many countries, trade between Taiwan and the United States are much closed. There are many studies about exchange rate, price ratio and real income effects on international trade, but the results are not consistent. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to explore the trade relationship between Taiwan and U.S. Empirical results show Taiwan export exchange rate, U.S. real income and the export price ratio has a significant effects on Taiwan exporting to the U.S. The export price ratio coefficient is 0.370876 and the export exchange rate coefficient is -1.613815 that indicates that most of the products of Taiwan exporting to U.S. are inelastic. Second, Taiwan import exchange rate, Taiwan real income and the import price ratio has significant effects on Taiwan importing to the U.S. The US relative import price ratio drops or the exchange rate appreciates will cause Taiwan's import increase. The result indicates that most of the products of Taiwan importing from U.S. are elastic.