探討ECFA對臺灣未來發展之影響

NFLUENCE OF ECFA TO FUTURE OF TAIWAN

ECFA「兩岸經濟合作協議」，已經兩岸代表簽署生效，本文係從未來學的學理原則和基礎，來探討 ECFA 對台灣未來可能產生的影響。現實的兩岸關係是需要 ECFA，的確對彼此互利，但 ECFA 是否會因為其他條件的變化而變化，兩岸關係將如何互動，也是值得我們探討。未來學的「慣性兩難原則」、「未來空間原則」、「許多可能原則」，都讓我們對於不可連續性的經驗和軌跡，存在著若干想像和應對的空間，我們不樂觀也不悲觀看待 ECFA，但卻必須對於未來「變化」的因素，給予關心。也許這些「變化」，根本不可能發生，這就是用未來學學理原則和基礎來探討 ECFA 的意義吧！

ECFA has come into force after signature by representatives from both sides across the straits. This article is based on the principles and foundations of Futurology to discuss the influence ECFA may bring to the future of Taiwan. ECFA is no doubt beneficial to both sides. However, the interaction and the relationship between two sides need to be studied because of the future possible changes on ECFA due to other related situation factors. “The principle of inertial dilemma”, “the principle of future space” and “the principle of multiple possibilities” in the theories of Futurology” regarding impossibility of continuous experience and tracks give us ample space for imagination and establishing measures to cope with. We should remain fair and unbiased to look at the issue of ECFA. Nevertheless, we should at the same time pay great attention to the future possible factors that may change the conditions for ECFA. These changes may not occur, it is still significant to utilize the principles and foundations of Futurology to study the issue.