電視媒體期貨分析師之績效與對市場影響之研究

The performance of Tele-network Analysts and Their Effect on Index Futures and Stock Markets

本研究主要探討投顧分析師，使用電視媒體之行銷手法，進行期貨分析解盤並招攬期貨會員，帶動雜訊交易者大量進入期貨市場交易，對期貨與現貨市場波動性的影響；以及電視媒體之期貨分析師，帶領會員盤中即時買賣指數期貨之績效。本文實證結果發現，無論是日或日內 5 分鐘報酬率，都顯著增加期貨與現貨市場價格波動。並認為此情況會增加交易市場不穩定性，與加大市場參與者的投資風險。其次，本文研究發現，無論是考慮交易成本前或扣除交易成本後，投資人均無法藉由電視媒體之期貨分析師，盤中即時買賣指數期貨資訊獲取超額報酬。本文研究結論可做為交易市場參與人投資決策之依據，並可作為相關政府單位，對投顧電視財經節目訂定監督政策時之參考。

This study aims to investigate the influence of excessive noise traders to the volatility of the index futures and the stock markets as analysts use the television network to draw in possible futures market investors. The study also investigates in the profits generated by these investors as they operate their futures stock according to the tele-network analysts. The findings of this research indicate that noise traders increase index futures and stock market volatility. Since such actions gives raise to the instability and the investment risk of investors in the transaction market. What is more, this research realizes that despite all the harm these, tele-network induced, quick buy-in and selling of goods do to the index futures, the investors are not making excess returns, before or after their costs are taken into consideration. In the least the findings of this research can be used as an investing guideline for investors in the futures market. In addition, this study can act as a reference for government policies concerning the monitoring of tele-network investing shows.