博弈產業與總體經濟指標關聯性之研究——以美國拉斯維加斯與澳門為例

Relationships between Gambling Industry and Macroeconomic Indicators -- Evidence from Las Vegas and Macao

本研究係以美國拉斯維加斯與澳門為主要研究對象，探討博弈產業收益成長率與總體經濟指標(實質經濟成長率、消費者物價指數年增率及失業率)之關聯性，並運用 Johansen共整合檢定及 Granger 因果關係檢定進行探討，藉此瞭解各變數之間的關聯性。實證結果如下：(1)長期共整合檢定結果顯示，美國拉斯維加斯博弈產業收益成長率與兩總體經濟指標「美國失業率與美國消費者物價指數年增率」之間，存在著長期均衡關係；另外，澳門博弈產業收益成長率則是與兩總體經濟指標「澳門失業率與澳門實質經濟成長率」之間，存在著長期均衡關係。(2)短期因果關係檢定結果顯示，美國拉斯維加斯博弈收益成長率對美國失業率呈現單向領先關係。另外，澳門博弈收益成長率對澳門失業率亦呈現單向領先關係。綜合以上結果發現，失業率與博弈產業之間的關聯性相當密切。

In this study, we investigate the relationship between the gambling industry revenue growth rates and macroeconomic indicators (e.g., real economic growth rate, annual growth rate of the consumer price index and unemployment rate) by applying Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test. We select Las Vegas and Macau as empirical subjects because these two areas can relatively easy to obtain the statistical data.Our results show that: (1) Long-term Johansen cointegration results show that the revenue growth rate of the Las Vegas gambling industry and the two macroeconomic indicators(the U.S. unemployment rate and the U.S. annual growth rate of the consumer price index ) exist long-term equilibrium relationships. In addition, the revenue growth rate of the Macau gambling industry and the two macroeconomic indicators (the Macao unemployment rate and the Macao real economic growth) exist long-run equilibrium relationships. (2) The short-term Granger causal result shows that the revenue growth rate of the Las Vegas gambling industry leads the United States unemployment rate. In addition, the revenue growth rate of Macau gambling industry leads the Macau unemployment rate. The above results indicate that the unemployment rate is useful macroeconomic indicator to predict the business prospective of gambling industry.